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What replicates in AEO and GEO research

Which AEO and GEO research findings hold up across independent studies, which did not replicate, and which rest on one study. Graded, 2023–2026.

By , founder of AEO HQ

Published · Updated

In research on answer engine optimization (AEO) and generative engine optimization (GEO) published from 2023 to 2026, only a few findings hold up across independent studies. A page must be retrieved before its wording can matter (opens in a new tab). Relevance to the question and position among the sources are the levers that replicate best (opens in a new tab), and answers vary substantially from run to run (opens in a new tab). The best-known tactic, adding quotations and statistics to a page, did not hold up in a later benchmark that measured citation rank (opens in a new tab).

This page is AEO HQ's replication record for the field. For each common claim, it sets out what the first study found, which later studies tested it, and whether the result held. It is part of AEO HQ's research. It is a structured review of the studies AEO HQ collected for its research program, not a systematic review. Sources were checked on September 27, 2026.

Scope and method

What "replicates" means on this page

  • Retrieval. The step in which an engine fetches candidate pages from a search index while it builds an answer.
  • Replication. A later study tests a finding again and reaches the same result. A direct replication repeats the original method. A conceptual replication tests the same claim with a different method, system, or data set.
  • Independent. The later study comes from a different research group.
  • Stage. A generative engine works in stages, from deciding whether to search to writing and citing the answer. The complete guide to generative engine optimization describes them. Two studies test the same claim only if they measure the same stage and a comparable outcome.
  • Laboratory and field. In a laboratory study, researchers control what the model sees, for example by supplying the pages directly. A field study observes live products or live traffic.
  • Preprint. A paper posted publicly before, or without, peer review. "Accepted" means accepted for publication but not yet published.

Each claim below gets one of six verdicts. The verdicts are AEO HQ's judgments, and the rules are stated so that readers can check them:

VerdictMeaning
ReplicatedAt least two independent studies with different data or systems agree, or platforms document the fact directly
Partly replicatedStudies agree in direction, but only in laboratory settings, or one study is supported by evidence of a different kind
Did not replicateA later, stricter test did not reproduce the result
ContestedCredible studies disagree
Not yet replicatedOne study, one vendor's data, or correlations only
UntestedWe found no study

Verdicts also depend on the design behind a study. A 2026 critical review of 45 GEO studies proposes a scale for grading a claim by the design that supports it (opens in a new tab) (preprint), paraphrased here:

LevelDesignWhat it can show
ARandomized field trial, or a strong quasi-experiment with logs and controlsA causal effect on clicks, traffic, or conversions in the setting studied
BLive commercial engines, with repeated runs, paraphrases, and several datesHow visibility is distributed, and how engines differ
CA commercial engine given manually supplied URLs or filesAn effect after retrieval, not on crawling or organic retrieval
DA reproducible pipeline with retrieval, reranking, and generationStage-by-stage effects inside the testbed
EA fixed context, a synthetic ranker, or a model used as judgeA possible mechanism, given that context

Sources and conflicts of interest

The studies were published between November 2023 and September 2026, plus a few earlier studies of how language models read their input. Each finding links to its source, labeled as peer-reviewed, preprint, vendor study, journalism, or official documentation. When a study's authors work for a company that sells a related product, we say so. Where we could read only a study's abstract, we say so. AEO HQ's evidence standard describes the source tiers and checks.

AEO HQ sells AEO services, including audits, so it has an interest in which tactics look effective. Readers should weigh our verdicts with that in mind.

The record at a glance

#ClaimVerdictMain evidence
1Pages must be retrievable before anything else mattersReplicated (documented)Google's indexing requirement (opens in a new tab); the reranking cutoff in a full pipeline (opens in a new tab)
2Position among the sources has large effectsReplicated (laboratory)C-SEO Bench (opens in a new tab); six-model trials (opens in a new tab); long-context study (opens in a new tab)
3Relevance to the question drives which source is usedReplicated (laboratory)ACL 2024 study (opens in a new tab); six-model trials (opens in a new tab); SAGEO Arena (opens in a new tab)
4Answers vary from run to runReplicatedSparkToro (opens in a new tab); Kirsten et al. (opens in a new tab); Schulte et al. (opens in a new tab)
5AI answers cite beyond the top organic resultsReplicated in direction; size variesGrossman et al. (opens in a new tab); Xu et al. (opens in a new tab); Zhang et al. (opens in a new tab)
6Citations often fail to support the claims attached to themReplicatedLiu et al. (opens in a new tab); Wu et al. (opens in a new tab); Xu et al. (opens in a new tab)
7Page content can manipulate AI answersReplicated (laboratory and some live tests)Nestaas et al. (opens in a new tab); Pfrommer et al. (opens in a new tab); Luo and Chen (opens in a new tab)
8Well-known brands start aheadReplicated in directionChu and Hou (opens in a new tab); Kumar (opens in a new tab); Sharma (opens in a new tab)
9Gains shrink when competitors copy a tacticPartly replicated (simulations)C-SEO Bench (opens in a new tab); Nestaas et al. (opens in a new tab); Chu and Hou (opens in a new tab)
10Specific facts, such as prices, raise citation oddsPartly replicated (laboratory)six-model trials (opens in a new tab); Chu and Hou (opens in a new tab)
11An answer early on the page helpsPartly replicatedSAGEO Arena (opens in a new tab); field study (suggestive) (opens in a new tab)
12Recent dates helpPartly replicated (laboratory)six-model trials (opens in a new tab); recency-bias study (opens in a new tab)
13Adding quotations, statistics, or citations raises visibility ("GEO +40%")Did not replicateoriginal study (opens in a new tab); C-SEO Bench (opens in a new tab); SAGEO Arena (opens in a new tab)
14A persuasive or authoritative tone helpsDid not replicateoriginal study (opens in a new tab); ACL 2024 study (opens in a new tab); six-model trials (opens in a new tab)
15A rewriting method that wins its own benchmark works in a full pipelineDid not replicateAutoGEO (opens in a new tab); SAGEO Arena (opens in a new tab)
16Formatting and structure raise citationsContestedsix-model trials (opens in a new tab); SAGEO Arena (opens in a new tab); Hypertext 2026 paper (opens in a new tab)
17Mentions on other sites raise a brand's visibility in AI answersNot yet replicated as a causeAhrefs (opens in a new tab); Sharma (opens in a new tab)
18Schema markup raises AI citationsNot supportedAhrefs matched study (opens in a new tab)
19llms.txt files helpNot supportedAhrefs server logs (opens in a new tab); C-SEO Bench (opens in a new tab)
20GEO raises clicks, traffic, or salesNot yet replicatedfield study (opens in a new tab); critical review (opens in a new tab)
21There is a known time to a first citationUntestedNone

Findings that replicate

1. Pages must be retrievable before anything else matters

Verdict: replicated. Platforms document it, and the research is consistent with it.

Our reading: work on a page's wording can matter only for pages that an engine can retrieve. Most GEO experiments start after retrieval, so their results do not show that a page will be found.

2. Position among the sources has large effects

Verdict: replicated in laboratory settings, by independent groups.

Limit: site owners cannot set a page's position directly. It follows from retrieval rank and reranking. We found no test on a live engine that isolates position.

3. Relevance to the question drives which source is used

Verdict: replicated in laboratory settings.

Three groups, three designs: counterfactual edits to real paragraphs, a factorial test of synthetic pages, and a retrieval pipeline over real web documents. The review rates relevance as a major determinant at high confidence (see finding 2).

4. Answers vary from run to run

Verdict: replicated on live engines, across groups, engines, and dates.

The 2026 review summarizes the commercial audits it covers as showing "low source overlap, substantial run-to-run variability, and persistent fidelity gaps" (opens in a new tab). A single answer or screenshot is one sample, not a measurement of AI visibility.

5. AI answers cite beyond the top organic results

Verdict: replicated in direction. The size of the gap varies with the method and the date.

The size varies. One SEO-tool vendor measured 76.10% of AI Overview-cited pages in Google's top 10 in July 2025 (opens in a new tab) and 37.9% in March 2026, after improving its method for parsing citations (opens in a new tab) (vendor studies). Where AI and traditional results do overlap, the domains AI search engines cited were most often the first-ranked result: 23.27% of the time in Bing and 14.53% in Google (opens in a new tab).

Whether AI answers favor popular sites is contested. In the US benchmark, traditional Google search was "significantly more likely to retrieve information from popular or institutional websites in government or education" (opens in a new tab). A study of queries in 243 countries found instead that AI search surfaced "significantly fewer long tail information sources" (opens in a new tab) than traditional search (preprint).

6. Citations often fail to support the claims attached to them

Verdict: replicated across general, news, and health questions.

Users do not reliably catch the gap. In a crowd-sourced comparison, user preferences were influenced by the number of citations "even when the cited content does not directly support the attributed claims" (opens in a new tab) (peer-reviewed, ICLR 2026). We found no study of claims about B2B vendors in particular.

7. Page content can manipulate AI answers

Verdict: replicated in laboratory tests and in some tests on live engines. How well an attack works depends on the model.

Results depend on the model. Across 13 model back ends, attack success ranged from 0.0% on Claude Sonnet 4.6 to 31.4% on Gemini 3 Flash (opens in a new tab) (preprint; abstract read). Defenses are arriving: spotlighting cut attack success from over 50% to under 2% (opens in a new tab) (preprint), a reranker that demotes GEO-rewritten documents cut average attack success from 50.32% to 6.20% (opens in a new tab) (preprint), and a lightweight guard cut attack success by 47.6% in relative terms (opens in a new tab) (accepted). The review rates "Retrieved documents constitute a genuine attack surface" at high confidence (opens in a new tab).

These tactics also break platform rules. Google's spam policies cover attempts to manipulate generative AI responses (opens in a new tab), and Bing warns that content "designed to manipulate or interfere with language models used by Bing or Copilot may result in reduced visibility or removal from search experiences" (opens in a new tab) (official documentation). Generative engine optimization antipatterns describes the variants.

8. Well-known brands start ahead

Verdict: replicated in direction, across different designs.

Our reading: a new or small company depends more on what engines retrieve than on what models already know about it.

9. Gains shrink when competitors copy a tactic

Verdict: partly replicated. Three groups found it, all in simulations.

The review rates this claim at moderate confidence, noting that it holds "in tested multi-actor settings" (opens in a new tab). We found no study that follows a real market over time.

Findings that partly replicate

10. Specific facts, such as prices, raise citation odds

Verdict: partly replicated in laboratory settings.

The review rates "Extractable evidence and suitable structure often facilitate use" at moderate confidence (opens in a new tab). We found no field test that isolates specific facts. These results concern facts that answer the question. Numbers added for their own sake did not help (finding 13).

11. An answer early on the page helps

Verdict: partly replicated. One laboratory pipeline, one learned rule, and one suggestive field study point the same way.

The bundle in the field study also changed URLs and added pages, so its effect cannot be credited to the early answers alone.

12. Recent dates help

Verdict: partly replicated in laboratory settings.

We found no study that tests whether a visible, true update date changes citations on a live engine. A date changed without a content change misstates the page.

Findings that did not replicate

13. Adding quotations, statistics, or citations ("GEO +40%")

Verdict: did not replicate as a general effect.

The original result. The 2024 GEO paper found that adding quotations raised a source's share of the generated answer by about 41% and adding statistics by about 31%, in a simulated engine where the page was already retrieved (opens in a new tab) (peer-reviewed, KDD 2024). Its abstract says GEO "can boost visibility by up to 40% in generative engine responses" (opens in a new tab). Three details narrow the result:

The later tests.

Reconciliation. The C-SEO Bench authors say the original study's word-count metric does not measure the model's preference, and conclude that "the results of both papers on LLM preferences do not contradict each other" (opens in a new tab). The 2026 review calls the 40% figure "a relative maximum on one metric under a specific configuration" (opens in a new tab) and rejects it as a general claim. Our reading: the original result describes a page that is already one of five sources, judged by its share of the answer's words, with gpt-3.5-turbo as the engine. It says nothing about retrieval, citation rank, or current models.

14. A persuasive or authoritative tone helps

Verdict: did not replicate. Three studies found no consistent effect.

One distinction held in a single study: confident rather than hedged wording was among the factors significant in at least four of six models (opens in a new tab). Plain, confident statements of fact may help; sales language did not.

15. A rewriting method that wins its own benchmark works in a full pipeline

Verdict: did not replicate in the one full-pipeline test available.

Rewritten pages can also be detected and demoted. A detector identified GEO-optimized pages with an F1 score of 0.944 and estimated that 8.90% of 10,095 pages in Google and Gemini results were GEO-optimized, rising to 16.36% of pages modified in 2026 (opens in a new tab) (preprint; abstract read; F1 is an accuracy score from 0 to 1). The review rates "Systematically optimized or learned methods often outperform fixed heuristics in controlled benchmarks" at moderate confidence (opens in a new tab), and the claim that "A white-hat GEO intervention durably improves organic discoverability across multiple engines" at low confidence (opens in a new tab). White-hat means within platform rules.

Findings that are contested

16. Formatting and structure raise citations

Verdict: contested. The answer seems to depend on the stage.

Platform guidance points both ways. Microsoft says assistants like Copilot break content into "smaller, structured pieces" (opens in a new tab), while Google says "There's no requirement to break your content into tiny pieces for AI to better understand it" (opens in a new tab) (official documentation). Our reading: structure seems to matter most where pages are split and matched to queries, and least once a model has the full text in front of it.

Findings that rest on one study, one vendor, or correlations

17. Mentions on other sites raise AI visibility

Verdict: not yet replicated as a cause. The correlations are consistent, but we found no controlled test.

These are correlations and descriptive shares. A brand's size can drive both its mentions and its visibility. Brand mentions and AI recommendations covers the practical side.

18. Schema markup raises AI citations

Verdict: not supported.

We found no controlled study showing that schema markup raises AI citations.

19. llms.txt files help

Verdict: not supported.

20. GEO raises clicks, traffic, or sales

Verdict: not yet replicated.

Open questions

We found no study that answers these questions:

Why studies disagree

  1. They measure different stages. The 2026 review argues that conflicting findings "can be reconciled once the stages of the pipeline and the causal estimand are distinguished" (opens in a new tab). An estimand is the exact quantity a study sets out to estimate.
  2. They use different outcomes. A share of the answer's words, a citation rank, a retrieval hit rate, and a referral count can move in different directions. As the C-SEO Bench authors put it, "A higher word count does not necessarily correspond to a better citation ranking" (opens in a new tab).
  3. Simulations are not live products. Most GEO studies test the stages between context allocation and citation, and far fewer observe crawling, organic retrieval, or user behavior (opens in a new tab). The SAGEO Arena authors observed that "findings from existing benchmarks do not readily generalize to realistic settings" (opens in a new tab).
  4. Models change. The original GEO study used gpt-3.5-turbo; later studies used models released through 2026, which responded very differently (finding 7). The review rates "Commercial engines differ from one another and vary over time" at high confidence (opens in a new tab).
  5. APIs are not the apps people use. The ChatGPT and Gemini APIs shared only 12.0% and 14.8% of cited domains with their consumer interfaces (opens in a new tab), and the authors conclude that "neither isolated responses nor API observations can be assumed to represent the commercial advice consumers encounter" (opens in a new tab) (preprint).
  6. Test pages are often synthetic. In the six-model trials, GPT-4o anonymized the brands and generated the paired page variants (opens in a new tab).
  7. Many authors sell related products. Authors of studies above work for or with Sprinklr, Glasp, Ranqo, Aurora Intelligence, and Ahrefs, as noted at each finding.

What this means in practice

These points are AEO HQ's recommendations, based on the record above:

  1. Work in stage order. Make pages crawlable, indexed, and ranked before editing their wording.
  2. Use the levers with the most support. Relevance to the buyer's question, rank for the question and its sub-questions, an answer early on the page, and specific facts that answer the question.
  3. Treat other tactics as unproven. That includes rewriting heuristics, formatting alone, schema markup, and llms.txt.
  4. Ask for the conditions behind any claimed lift. Ask for the stage, the outcome measured, the engine and model, the dates, and the control group. A lift with none of these is an anecdote.
  5. Measure with repeated runs and untreated pages. The complete guide to generative engine optimization sets out a method.

Limitations of this review

  • It is not a systematic review. There was no pre-registered search protocol, and the studies were drawn from the sources collected for AEO HQ's research tracks.
  • Many sources are preprints, and several were read in abstract only.
  • Engines and models change often, so findings can date quickly.
  • The verdicts are AEO HQ's judgments. Others applying the same rules could reach different ones.
  • AEO HQ sells AEO services.

Change log

  • September 28, 2026: First published.

Next steps

AEO HQ's Instant AEO Audit ($499) is an automated check of a site's crawler access, key pages, and structured data, with a small sample of one AI model's answers. How AEO HQ measures AI visibility explains what the audit measures and what it does not.

Sources

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How to cite this page

Maxwell, P. (2026). What replicates in AEO and GEO research. AEO HQ. Last updated September 28, 2026. https://www.aeohq.ai/articles/what-replicates

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